Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-2 Cherno More Varna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 19 Aug 2024

📅19/08/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.99
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
41%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.6
Over 2.5
42%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
16%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
30%
+2.9pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.3pp
41%
Away Win
41%
-0.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.0pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 45%
+36% / +36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.33/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.11/1.36
+19% / +71% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +61% / -30%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
265 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Cherno More Varna
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
4 Yellow Cards 3
28.04.2024 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 1-0 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
08.04.2024 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 HT 1-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
07.10.2023 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 2-2 HT 1-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
02.06.2023 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-1 HT 0-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
17.04.2023 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 2-1 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1-2
AWAY Cherno More Varna
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cherno More Varna nicked a narrow win over Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cherno More Varna as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lokomotiv Plovdiv had 49% of the ball to Cherno More Varna's 51%, shots finished 7-7.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 1.20 for Cherno More Varna.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna?

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-2 Cherno More Varna in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 19/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cherno More Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Plovdiv 33%, draw 27%, Cherno More Varna 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cherno More Varna) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cherno More Varna) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
19 Aug 2024
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