FC Lahti 2-1 IFK Mariehamn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 19 Sep 2024

📅19/09/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.33
Draw
34%
3.28
Away
28%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.91
Over 2.5
42%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.66
No
54%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.43
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.46
6+ Goals
8%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.43 — our 31% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.49
1/2
9%
29.5
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
17%
5.37
X/2
8%
5.85
X/X
20%
4.61
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
11%
3.94
2/X
6%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-0.9pp
34%
Draw
27%
+6.4pp
28%
Away Win
34%
-5.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
48%
+9.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
52%
-9.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.8pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Lahti EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +16%
1.58/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.36
-14% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +11%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
298 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 80%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.3
18.7 Crosses 23.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Lahti
2W-3D-1L
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.42 xG 1.05
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
397 Passes 293
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.08.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
12.05.2024 FC Lahti FC Lahti 3-0 HT 2-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
23.02.2024 FC Lahti FC Lahti 1-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FLK
08.10.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
23.07.2023 FC Lahti FC Lahti 0-2 HT 0-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
16.04.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-3 HT 1-0 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Lahti
2-1
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
1.21 xG 1.61
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
290 Passes 366
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 27
22 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Lahti vs IFK Mariehamn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Lahti squeezed past IFK Mariehamn 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 34% / 28%) promised a tight game; FC Lahti found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Lahti had 46% of the ball to IFK Mariehamn's 54%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 1.21 to 1.61 — on chances, IFK Mariehamn could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Lahti had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for FC Lahti and 0.83 for IFK Mariehamn.

What was the final score of FC Lahti vs IFK Mariehamn?

FC Lahti 2-1 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 19/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Lahti vs IFK Mariehamn?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Lahti win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split FC Lahti 38%, draw 34%, IFK Mariehamn 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Lahti) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Lahti) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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