Guadalajara 2-0 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 19 Sep 2024

Guadalajara
2-0 HT 1-0
Leon
📅19/09/2024 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Guadalajara vs Leon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.66
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
21%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.0
Over 2.5
56%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.76
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
25%
3.23
6+ Goals
12%
11.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
56%
+0.2pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.1pp
21%
Away Win
20%
+0.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
46%
-2.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
54%
+2.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.4pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Guadalajara v Leon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 23%
-7% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -11%
1.63/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.55
-4% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
346 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 79%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
20.9 Crosses 13.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4

Guadalajara vs Leon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guadalajara
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Leon
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.42 xG 1.43
47% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
296 Passes 323
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.03.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-2 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK
04.07.2023 Leon Leon 1-2 HT 1-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
16.04.2023 Leon Leon 0-2 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
21.07.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-0 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
20.02.2022 Leon Leon 2-1 HT 1-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
19.08.2021 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-3 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK

Guadalajara 2-0 Leon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guadalajara
2-0
AWAY Leon
1.47 xG 0.79
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
342 Passes 404
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 10
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Guadalajara vs Leon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara got the better of Leon 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Guadalajara as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Guadalajara had 47% of the ball to Leon's 53%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.47 to 0.79.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leon led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Guadalajara and 1.33 for Leon.

What was the final score of Guadalajara vs Leon?

Guadalajara 2-0 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 19/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guadalajara vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 56%, draw 23%, Leon 21%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guadalajara) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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