Guadalajara 1-2 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒02:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.97
Over 2.5
45%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.68
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.29
6+ Goals
13%
11.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.68 — our 29% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-4.7pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.6pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
47%
+8.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
53%
-8.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.7pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 30%
-2% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -9%
1.45/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.49
-6% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +2%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
360 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 76%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
20.1 Crosses 13.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guadalajara
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Leon
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.42 xG 1.49
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
256 Passes 357
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.07.2023 Leon Leon 1-2 HT 1-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
16.04.2023 Leon Leon 0-2 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
21.07.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-0 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
20.02.2022 Leon Leon 2-1 HT 1-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
19.08.2021 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-3 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK
09.02.2021 Leon Leon 1-3 HT 0-2 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guadalajara
1-2
AWAY Leon
1.73 xG 1.47
67% Ball Possession 33%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 1
472 Passes 198
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 19
27 Crosses 9
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Guadalajara vs Leon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leon edged past Guadalajara 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Guadalajara at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Guadalajara had 67% of the ball to Leon's 33%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.73 to 1.47.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Guadalajara and 1.17 for Leon.

What was the final score of Guadalajara vs Leon?

Guadalajara 1-2 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guadalajara vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 43%, draw 28%, Leon 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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