Pumas UNAM 3-3 Tijuana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 10 Mar 2024

Pumas UNAM
3-3 HT 2-1
Tijuana
📅10/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Pumas UNAM vs Tijuana Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.61
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.03
Over 2.5
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.86
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.18
6+ Goals
12%
10.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
12%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
58%
-3.8pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.3pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+2.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.3pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pumas UNAM v Tijuana — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Tijuana EU Bookmakers 22%
-10% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -19%
1.85/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.75
+0% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -21%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
320 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 78%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
22.9 Crosses 15.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3

Pumas UNAM vs Tijuana Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pumas UNAM
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Tijuana
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.21 xG 1.52
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
255 Passes 339
73% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
01.07.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 2-3 HT 1-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
28.01.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 0-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
03.07.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-1 HT 0-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
06.02.2022 Tijuana Tijuana 1-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
24.10.2021 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 3-1 HT 1-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
09.01.2021 Tijuana Tijuana 0-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK

Pumas UNAM 3-3 Tijuana — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pumas UNAM
3-3
AWAY Tijuana
0.98 xG 2.95
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 3
253 Passes 346
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Pumas UNAM vs Tijuana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pumas UNAM and Tijuana couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Pumas UNAM at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Pumas UNAM had 44% of the ball to Tijuana's 56%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 0.98 to 2.95.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pumas UNAM had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Pumas UNAM and 0.83 for Tijuana.

What was the final score of Pumas UNAM vs Tijuana?

Pumas UNAM 3-3 Tijuana in the Mexico - Primera on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pumas UNAM vs Tijuana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pumas UNAM win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Pumas UNAM 54%, draw 24%, Tijuana 22%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Pumas UNAM) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pumas UNAM) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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