Khimki 1-5 Lokomotiv Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Cup, 19 Sep 2024

📅19/09/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.48
Draw
30%
3.8
Away
44%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.83
2-3 Goals
35%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.2
6+ Goals
13%
10.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.83 — our 29% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
21%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
19%
+6.8pp
30%
Draw
23%
+7.1pp
44%
Away Win
58%
-13.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.5pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Khimki EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 62%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
0.48/2.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.55/0.64
-39% / -42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +107% / +9%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
199 · 62% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Khimki
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
0.87 xG 2.84
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 6
270 Passes 299
71% Pass Accuracy 75%
28 Box Touches 31
17 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.08.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 4-0 HT 2-0 Khimki Khimki RUK
30.04.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 5-1 HT 1-0 Khimki Khimki RUS
18.10.2022 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 HT 0-0 Khimki Khimki RUK
28.09.2022 Khimki Khimki 0-5 HT 0-2 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUK
20.08.2022 Khimki Khimki 0-3 HT 0-2 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
06.03.2022 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 3-2 HT 2-1 Khimki Khimki RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Khimki
1-5
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Khimki vs Lokomotiv Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow cruised past Khimki 5-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lokomotiv Moscow as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Khimki had 46% of the ball to Lokomotiv Moscow's 54%, shots finished 11-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Moscow led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Khimki and 3.50 for Lokomotiv Moscow.

What was the final score of Khimki vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Khimki 1-5 Lokomotiv Moscow in the Russia - Cup on 19/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Khimki vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Khimki 26%, draw 30%, Lokomotiv Moscow 44%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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