Spartak Moskova 4-1 Krylya Sovetov — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Cup, 19 Sep 2024

📅19/09/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.43
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
23%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.82
Over 2.5
52%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.13
No
56%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.17
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.7
6+ Goals
11%
15.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.17 — our 28% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
66%
-10.5pp
22%
Draw
21%
+0.9pp
22%
Away Win
13%
+9.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
51%
-3.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
49%
+3.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
43%
+1.3pp
56%
BTTS No
57%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Moskova EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Krylya Sovetov EU Bookmakers 16%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
2.32/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.58/2.09
+22% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -3%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
400 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spartak Moskova
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Krylya Sovetov
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.42 xG 0.91
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
428 Passes 250
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.08.2024 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 0-3 HT 0-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUK
05.08.2024 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 3-0 HT 2-0 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS
09.12.2023 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 3-0 HT 2-0 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS
01.10.2023 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 4-0 HT 2-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
03.06.2023 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 1-0 HT 0-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
23.11.2022 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 2-1 HT 0-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spartak Moskova
4-1
AWAY Krylya Sovetov
60% Ball Possession 40%
19 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Spartak Moskova vs Krylya Sovetov
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Moskova ran out comfortable winners over Krylya Sovetov 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Spartak Moskova as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Spartak Moskova had 60% of the ball to Krylya Sovetov's 40%, shots finished 19-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Spartak Moskova and 1.17 for Krylya Sovetov.

What was the final score of Spartak Moskova vs Krylya Sovetov?

Spartak Moskova 4-1 Krylya Sovetov in the Russia - Cup on 19/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Moskova vs Krylya Sovetov?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spartak Moskova win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Spartak Moskova 55%, draw 22%, Krylya Sovetov 22%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spartak Moskova), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Spartak Moskova) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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