Pari Nizhny Novgorod 1-2 FC Akhmat Grozny — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Cup, 19 Sep 2024

📅19/09/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.57
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
37%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.78
Over 2.5
43%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.75
No
55%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.07
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.81
6+ Goals
9%
16.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.07 — our 29% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
35%
+3.2pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.5pp
37%
Away Win
37%
+0.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.9pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pari Nizhny Novgorod EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny EU Bookmakers 40%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
1.04/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.18/0.25
-20% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +106% / +150%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
260 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pari Nizhny Novgorod
3W-0D-3L
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.07 xG 1.07
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
252 Passes 286
71% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
31.07.2024 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 4-1 HT 2-1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod RUK
28.04.2024 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 5-1 HT 2-1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod RUS
14.08.2023 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod 2-0 HT 2-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
11.11.2022 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod 3-2 HT 1-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
10.09.2022 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 1-3 HT 0-1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod RUS
07.05.2022 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
POST-MATCH Pari Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Akhmat Grozny
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Akhmat Grozny nicked a narrow win over Pari Nizhny Novgorod 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 24% / 37%) promised a tight game; FC Akhmat Grozny found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Pari Nizhny Novgorod and 2.17 for FC Akhmat Grozny.

What was the final score of Pari Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Akhmat Grozny?

Pari Nizhny Novgorod 1-2 FC Akhmat Grozny in the Russia - Cup on 19/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pari Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Akhmat Grozny?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pari Nizhny Novgorod win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Pari Nizhny Novgorod 38%, draw 24%, FC Akhmat Grozny 37%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Pari Nizhny Novgorod) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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