FC Akhmat Grozny 5-1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
33%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.07
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.81
6+ Goals
9%
16.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.07 — our 32% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.74
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.7
X/1
15%
4.38
X/2
14%
7.23
X/X
12%
4.53
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
12%
5.51
2/X
7%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
47%
-7.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.1pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+6.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.0pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Pari Nizhny Novgorod EU Bookmakers 30%
-3% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -7%
1.44/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.39
-16% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
306 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 74%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
18.6 Crosses 16.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Pari Nizhny Novgorod
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.27 xG 0.91
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
314 Passes 233
75% Pass Accuracy 70%
27 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.08.2023 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod 2-0 HT 2-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
11.11.2022 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod 3-2 HT 1-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
10.09.2022 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 1-3 HT 0-1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod RUS
07.05.2022 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
07.11.2021 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 3-1 HT 1-0 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod RUS
10.05.2014 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 2-0 HT 0-0 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
5-1
AWAY Pari Nizhny Novgorod
50% Ball Possession 50%
19 Total Shots 5
10 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
305 Passes 316
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
POST-MATCH FC Akhmat Grozny vs Pari Nizhny Novgorod
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Akhmat Grozny swept aside Pari Nizhny Novgorod 5-1. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; FC Akhmat Grozny found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Akhmat Grozny had 50% of the ball to Pari Nizhny Novgorod's 50%, shots finished 19-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for FC Akhmat Grozny and 1.50 for Pari Nizhny Novgorod.

What was the final score of FC Akhmat Grozny vs Pari Nizhny Novgorod?

FC Akhmat Grozny 5-1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod in the Russia - Premier League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Akhmat Grozny vs Pari Nizhny Novgorod?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Akhmat Grozny win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split FC Akhmat Grozny 40%, draw 27%, Pari Nizhny Novgorod 33%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Akhmat Grozny) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Akhmat Grozny) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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