Spartak Moskova 3-2 Lokomotiv Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 28 Apr 2024

Spartak Moskova
3-2 HT 1-0
Lokomotiv Moscow
📅28/04/2024 · 🕒16:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2023/2024

Spartak Moskova vs Lokomotiv Moscow Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.47
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
32%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.88
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.17
6+ Goals
9%
10.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 27% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.74
1/2
6%
26.0
1/X
6%
12.7
X/1
14%
5.82
X/2
12%
5.54
X/X
11%
4.95
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
14%
3.48
2/X
11%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
37%
+2.7pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.0pp
32%
Away Win
37%
-4.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.5pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Spartak Moskova v Lokomotiv Moscow — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Moskova EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 40%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +13%
1.63/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.32
+39% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / +5%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
292 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 78%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
17.1 Crosses 14.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8

Spartak Moskova vs Lokomotiv Moscow Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spartak Moskova
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.20 xG 0.87
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
310 Passes 278
75% Pass Accuracy 72%
30 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.11.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-1 HT 0-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
27.02.2023 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 4-2 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUK
22.02.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 0-1 HT 0-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUK
12.11.2022 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-2 HT 0-2 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
18.09.2022 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 1-0 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
02.04.2022 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 HT 0-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
POST-MATCH Spartak Moskova vs Lokomotiv Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Moskova edged past Lokomotiv Moscow 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 32%) promised a tight game; Spartak Moskova found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spartak Moskova had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Spartak Moskova and 0.83 for Lokomotiv Moscow.

What was the final score of Spartak Moskova vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Spartak Moskova 3-2 Lokomotiv Moscow in the Russia - Premier League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Moskova vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spartak Moskova win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Spartak Moskova 40%, draw 28%, Lokomotiv Moscow 32%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spartak Moskova) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Spartak Moskova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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