Dinamo Moscow 1-0 Zenit St. Petersburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.08
Draw
31%
3.45
Away
37%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.66
No
41%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.76
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.23
6+ Goals
13%
11.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.96
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
23.15
1/X
8%
13.7
X/1
9%
7.07
X/2
13%
4.6
X/X
17%
5.09
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
17%
2.74
2/X
6%
13.4
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.15 — our 7% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
29%
+3.3pp
31%
Draw
26%
+5.0pp
37%
Away Win
45%
-8.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+0.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-0.3pp
59%
BTTS Yes
56%
+2.8pp
41%
BTTS No
44%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg EU Bookmakers 49%
+3% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -8%
1.51/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/0.98
+11% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +9%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
293 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 402 · 81%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
15.9 Crosses 17.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Moscow
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.30 xG 1.32
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
240 Passes 525
74% Pass Accuracy 87%
10 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.03.2024 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 2-0 HT 2-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUK
29.11.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 1-0 HT 0-0 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUK
06.08.2023 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 2-3 HT 1-2 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
22.04.2023 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 3-1 HT 1-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
15.03.2023 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 1-1 HT 1-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUSK
17.09.2022 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 0-2 HT 0-1 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Moscow
1-0
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg
34% Ball Possession 66%
11 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 7
252 Passes 540
75% Pass Accuracy 86%
POST-MATCH Dinamo Moscow vs Zenit St. Petersburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Moscow nicked a narrow win over Zenit St. Petersburg 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (32% / 31% / 37%) promised a tight game; Dinamo Moscow found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Dinamo Moscow had 34% of the ball to Zenit St. Petersburg's 66%, shots finished 11-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zenit St. Petersburg led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Dinamo Moscow and 1.67 for Zenit St. Petersburg.

What was the final score of Dinamo Moscow vs Zenit St. Petersburg?

Dinamo Moscow 1-0 Zenit St. Petersburg in the Russia - Premier League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Moscow vs Zenit St. Petersburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Zenit St. Petersburg win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Moscow 32%, draw 31%, Zenit St. Petersburg 37%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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