Roda 1-4 RKC Waalwijk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 19 Sep 2025

Roda
1-4 HT 0-2
RKC Waalwijk
📅19/09/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2025/2026

Roda vs RKC Waalwijk Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.92
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
25%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.15
Over 2.5
56%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.9
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
2.86
6+ Goals
13%
8.73
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.65
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
8%
12.75
X/1
19%
4.82
X/2
9%
7.33
X/X
9%
5.36
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
21.95
2/2
10%
5.04
2/X
5%
13.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.95 — our 11% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
48%
+5.6pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.6pp
25%
Away Win
28%
-3.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
43%
+1.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
57%
-1.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.9pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Roda v RKC Waalwijk — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roda EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 32%
-5% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -7%
1.52/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.35
-17% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +18%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
329 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 78%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.0
19.8 Crosses 28.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.0

Roda vs RKC Waalwijk Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roda
3W-1D-2L
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 4
462 Passes 194
85% Pass Accuracy 72%
The Meetings
05.04.2019 Roda Roda 0-0 HT 0-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL2
14.09.2018 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 0-1 HT 0-0 Roda Roda HOL2
16.01.2015 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 3-0 HT 0-0 Roda Roda HOL2
08.08.2014 Roda Roda 3-2 HT 2-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL2
30.03.2014 Roda Roda 0-1 HT 0-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
19.10.2013 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 1-2 HT 0-0 Roda Roda HOL

Roda 1-4 RKC Waalwijk — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roda
1-4
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
1.85 xG 1.60
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
460 Passes 260
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Roda vs RKC Waalwijk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RKC Waalwijk swept aside Roda 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Roda at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Roda had 62% of the ball to RKC Waalwijk's 38%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.85 to 1.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roda had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Roda and 1.17 for RKC Waalwijk.

What was the final score of Roda vs RKC Waalwijk?

Roda 1-4 RKC Waalwijk in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 19/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roda vs RKC Waalwijk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roda win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Roda 53%, draw 22%, RKC Waalwijk 25%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Roda) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Roda) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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