Willem II 1-0 Ajax II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 19 Sep 2025

📅19/09/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.64
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
22%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.51
Over 2.5
61%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.53
No
41%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
5.06
2-3 Goals
38%
1.93
4-5 Goals
30%
2.53
6+ Goals
14%
6.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.07
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.55
X/1
21%
4.36
X/2
7%
9.25
X/X
10%
6.85
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
18.4
2/2
9%
6.39
2/X
6%
15.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.4 — our 8% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
56%
+0.5pp
21%
Draw
21%
+0.0pp
22%
Away Win
22%
-0.5pp
39%
Under 2.5
36%
+2.9pp
61%
Over 2.5
64%
-2.9pp
59%
BTTS Yes
61%
-2.6pp
41%
BTTS No
39%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Willem II EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax II EU Bookmakers 26%
-11% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -9%
1.92/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.55
-18% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
358 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 75%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
27.0 Crosses 12.2
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Willem II
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Ajax II
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.53 xG 0.58
45% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
322 Passes 460
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
25 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
19.01.2024 Willem II Willem II 1-1 HT 1-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
06.11.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 1-0 HT 1-0 Willem II Willem II HOL2
24.02.2023 Willem II Willem II 2-1 HT 2-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
31.10.2022 Ajax II Ajax II 1-2 HT 1-0 Willem II Willem II HOL2
30.03.2014 Willem II Willem II 7-1 HT 4-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
15.09.2013 Ajax II Ajax II 1-1 HT 1-0 Willem II Willem II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Willem II
1-0
AWAY Ajax II
1.42 xG 0.66
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
380 Passes 408
86% Pass Accuracy 87%
17 Box Touches 30
21 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Willem II vs Ajax II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Willem II edged past Ajax II 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Willem II as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Willem II had 49% of the ball to Ajax II's 51%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.42 to 0.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Willem II had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Willem II and 1.00 for Ajax II.

What was the final score of Willem II vs Ajax II?

Willem II 1-0 Ajax II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 19/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Willem II vs Ajax II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Willem II win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Willem II 57%, draw 21%, Ajax II 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Willem II) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Willem II) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL2 More Netherlands - Eerste Divisie
19 Sep 2025
21:00 Emmen vs Dordrecht Analysis →
21:00 FC Eindhoven vs FC Oss Analysis →
21:00 Roda vs RKC Waalwijk Analysis →
21:00 ADO Den Haag vs Almere City Analysis →