Aluminij 2-3 Maribor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 19 Sep 2025

📅19/09/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
16%
4.48
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
60%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.97
Over 2.5
54%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.37
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
25%
3.14
6+ Goals
10%
11.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
13%
1/X
7%
X/1
6%
X/2
19%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
28%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
16%
Home Win
19%
-3.1pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.6pp
60%
Away Win
57%
+2.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
47%
-0.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
53%
+0.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.2pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aluminij EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Maribor EU Bookmakers 62%
+7% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -19%
1.04/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.71/0.95
+0% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +1%
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
235 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 429 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aluminij
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Maribor
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.03.2025 Maribor Maribor 2-0 HT 0-0 Aluminij Aluminij SLVNK
05.04.2024 Aluminij Aluminij 0-2 HT 0-1 Maribor Maribor SLVN
11.02.2024 Maribor Maribor 7-0 HT 4-0 Aluminij Aluminij SLVN
01.10.2023 Aluminij Aluminij 1-0 HT 1-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
30.07.2023 Maribor Maribor 1-0 HT 0-0 Aluminij Aluminij SLVN
14.05.2022 Maribor Maribor 3-1 HT 0-1 Aluminij Aluminij SLVN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aluminij
2-3
AWAY Maribor
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 8
10 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aluminij vs Maribor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maribor edged past Aluminij 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Maribor as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Aluminij had 60% of the ball to Maribor's 40%, shots finished 16-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Maribor led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Aluminij and 2.50 for Maribor.

What was the final score of Aluminij vs Maribor?

Aluminij 2-3 Maribor in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 19/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aluminij vs Maribor?

Before kick-off our model rated an Maribor win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Aluminij 16%, draw 24%, Maribor 60%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maribor), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Maribor) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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