Burnley vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities
Burnley v Derby County — Team-Based Signals
Burnley vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Burnley hold a modest edge on our numbers — a lean, not a lock.
Both teams have scored in 5 of Burnley's last 5 home league games; meanwhile, over 2.5 goals has landed in 4 of Derby County's last 5 away league games.
Looking at the history: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burnley have the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.33 a game for Burnley against 0.33 for Derby County.
Burnley vs Derby County Kick-off Time
Burnley play Derby County in the England - Championship on 19/09/2026, kick-off 17:00 (Istanbul · GMT+3).
Burnley vs Derby County Match Prediction & Odds
Our model's prediction for Burnley vs Derby County is a Burnley win at about 53% probability, priced 1.82 at EU bookmakers. The full match-result split is Burnley 53%, draw 26%, Derby County 21%. These are probability estimates, not certainties — the most likely outcome still loses much of the time.