Burnley vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities
Burnley v Derby County — Team-Based Signals
Burnley vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Burnley 2-1 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics
Burnley shaded a tight game against Derby County 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
The way our numbers pointed is the way it went: our model had Burnley as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 49%, coin-flips both. If anything the market was more convinced: the BTTS-no price stood at 1.74, roughly 57%.
By the numbers, possession split 55% to 45% in Burnley's favour, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.30 to 0.74.
The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burnley had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.50 a game for Burnley against 0.17 for Derby County.
Burnley vs Derby County Result & Final Score
Burnley 2 - 1 Derby County in the England - League Cup on 26/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Burnley vs Derby County Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Burnley win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Burnley 64%, draw 21%, Derby County 15%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Burnley) — while BTTS No went the other way.