Burton Albion 0-1 Lincoln City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 26 Aug 2025

📅26/08/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
2.94
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
52%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.82
Over 2.5
57%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.73
No
44%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.11
2-3 Goals
36%
1.74
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.47
6+ Goals
15%
13.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.47 — our 25% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.73
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
26.0
1/X
5%
13.1
X/1
9%
6.61
X/2
10%
4.99
X/X
11%
4.51
2/1
5%
32.5
2/2
33%
3.06
2/X
7%
12.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 26.0 — our 9% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
30%
-5.1pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.3pp
52%
Away Win
42%
+9.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
51%
-8.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
49%
+8.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
54%
+2.6pp
44%
BTTS No
46%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burton Albion EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Lincoln City EU Bookmakers 46%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +42% / +42%
2.22/2.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.16/1.17
+85% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +137% /
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
288 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 75%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
18.0 Crosses 12.0
0.0 Yellow Cards 0.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burton Albion
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Lincoln City
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.22 xG 0.68
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
252 Passes 221
68% Pass Accuracy 64%
20 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
22.02.2025 Lincoln City Lincoln City 0-1 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
10.08.2024 Burton Albion Burton Albion 2-3 HT 2-2 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
03.02.2024 Burton Albion Burton Albion 0-1 HT 0-0 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
14.10.2023 Lincoln City Lincoln City 0-1 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
25.04.2023 Lincoln City Lincoln City 0-1 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
26.12.2022 Burton Albion Burton Albion 3-0 HT 3-0 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burton Albion
0-1
AWAY Lincoln City
0.44 xG 2.01
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 2
334 Passes 345
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 31
16 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Burton Albion vs Lincoln City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lincoln City edged past Burton Albion 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lincoln City as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Burton Albion had 48% of the ball to Lincoln City's 52%, shots finished 7-16, expected goals 0.44 to 2.01 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lincoln City's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burton Albion had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Burton Albion and 0.67 for Lincoln City.

What was the final score of Burton Albion vs Lincoln City?

Burton Albion 0-1 Lincoln City in the England - League Cup on 26/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burton Albion vs Lincoln City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lincoln City win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Burton Albion 25%, draw 23%, Lincoln City 52%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lincoln City) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lincoln City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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