Lincoln City 0-1 Burton Albion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 22 Feb 2025

📅22/02/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
28%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.67
Over 2.5
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.95
No
57%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.58
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
19%
4.07
6+ Goals
8%
20.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.58 — our 34% vs market 31.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.6
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.25
X/1
16%
4.28
X/2
11%
7.82
X/X
13%
4.31
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
11%
6.52
2/X
8%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-5.2pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.7pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+4.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.0pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.4pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lincoln City EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Burton Albion EU Bookmakers 27%
-8% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -3%
1.27/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.39
+0% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
298 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 70%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
18.4 Crosses 14.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lincoln City
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Burton Albion
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.85 xG 1.46
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
231 Passes 248
65% Pass Accuracy 68%
18 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 3
10.08.2024 Burton Albion Burton Albion 2-3 HT 2-2 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
03.02.2024 Burton Albion Burton Albion 0-1 HT 0-0 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
14.10.2023 Lincoln City Lincoln City 0-1 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
25.04.2023 Lincoln City Lincoln City 0-1 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
26.12.2022 Burton Albion Burton Albion 3-0 HT 3-0 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
29.01.2022 Lincoln City Lincoln City 1-2 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lincoln City
0-1
AWAY Burton Albion
0.22 xG 0.55
55% Ball Possession 45%
7 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 4
234 Passes 173
66% Pass Accuracy 60%
14 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lincoln City vs Burton Albion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burton Albion edged past Lincoln City 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Lincoln City at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Lincoln City had 55% of the ball to Burton Albion's 45%, shots finished 7-8, expected goals 0.22 to 0.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burton Albion led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Lincoln City and 1.50 for Burton Albion.

What was the final score of Lincoln City vs Burton Albion?

Lincoln City 0-1 Burton Albion in the England - 1st Division on 22/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lincoln City vs Burton Albion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lincoln City win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Lincoln City 44%, draw 28%, Burton Albion 28%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Lincoln City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lincoln City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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