Northampton Town 2-1 Bristol Rovers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 22 Feb 2025

📅22/02/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.05
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.67
Over 2.5
41%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.56
2-3 Goals
41%
1.71
4-5 Goals
17%
4.09
6+ Goals
9%
20.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.56 — our 33% vs market 31.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.98
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
11%
13.75
X/1
12%
4.62
X/2
9%
6.82
X/X
11%
4.19
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
16%
5.4
2/X
7%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
45%
-4.5pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.8pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+3.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.8pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Northampton Town EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Bristol Rovers EU Bookmakers 31%
+1% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +15%
1.32/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.35
-6% / +136% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +10%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
247 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 70%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
17.1 Crosses 15.6
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Northampton Town
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Bristol Rovers
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.89 xG 1.24
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
230 Passes 232
62% Pass Accuracy 63%
17 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2024 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 1-0 HT 0-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
17.02.2024 Northampton Town Northampton Town 3-1 HT 2-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
28.10.2023 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 2-1 HT 2-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
19.03.2022 Northampton Town Northampton Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN2
13.11.2021 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 2-1 HT 0-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN2
10.04.2021 Northampton Town Northampton Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Northampton Town
2-1
AWAY Bristol Rovers
0.65 xG 0.70
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
184 Passes 245
63% Pass Accuracy 72%
23 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Northampton Town vs Bristol Rovers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Northampton Town edged past Bristol Rovers 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 29% / 31% — and on the day Northampton Town made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Northampton Town had 47% of the ball to Bristol Rovers's 53%, shots finished 8-8, expected goals 0.65 to 0.70.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bristol Rovers led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Northampton Town and 1.33 for Bristol Rovers.

What was the final score of Northampton Town vs Bristol Rovers?

Northampton Town 2-1 Bristol Rovers in the England - 1st Division on 22/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Northampton Town vs Bristol Rovers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Northampton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Northampton Town 40%, draw 29%, Bristol Rovers 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Northampton Town) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Northampton Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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