19/09/2026
·
21:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
⟳Odds and our pick may update before kickoff — check again closer to match time. This match may also enter or leave our daily prediction lists until kick-off; from kick-off, a listed pick is locked and stays published.
Ajax vs Excelsior Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Total Goals
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Our Pick = the view of our model: the outcome it rates most likely. A forecast, not a bet.
Ajax v Excelsior — Team-Based Signals
SIGNALS
Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
Ajax vs Excelsior Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Ajax
2W-3D-1L
AWAY
Excelsior
3.00
Avg Goals (FT)
1.67
2.23
xG
0.98
66%
Ball Possession
34%
16
Total Shots
10
8
Shots on Target
4
7
Corners
4
565
Passes
248
87%
Pass Accuracy
74%
42
Box Touches
16
22
Crosses
14
1
Yellow Cards
1
The Meetings
PREVIEW
Ajax vs Excelsior
IDDAAKOLIK MATCH PREVIEW
The numbers set this up as Ajax's game to lose in front of their own crowd.
Excelsior arrive on a real away run — 4 wins from the last 5 in the league.
Across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax have the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 3.00 a game for Ajax against 1.67 for Excelsior.
Ajax vs Excelsior Kick-off Time
Ajax play Excelsior in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 19/09/2026, kick-off 21:00 (Istanbul · GMT+3).
Ajax vs Excelsior Match Prediction & Odds
Our model's prediction for Ajax vs Excelsior is a Ajax win at about 78% probability, priced 1.28 at EU bookmakers. The full match-result split is Ajax 78%, draw 12%, Excelsior 9%. These are probability estimates, not certainties — the most likely outcome still loses much of the time.
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More Netherlands - Eredivisie
19 Sep 2026