Arbroath 1-3 Dumbarton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - 1st Division, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
1.96
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
36%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.21
Over 2.5
43%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.53
No
51%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
4.55
2-3 Goals
42%
1.9
4-5 Goals
15%
2.89
6+ Goals
9%
8.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.55 — our 34% vs market 17.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
47%
-13.0pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.6pp
36%
Away Win
27%
+8.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
41%
+15.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
59%
-15.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
61%
-11.9pp
51%
BTTS No
39%
+11.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arbroath EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Dumbarton EU Bookmakers 31%
-6% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +0%
0.90/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.65
-44% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
302 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
8.0 Crosses 3.0
4.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arbroath
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Dumbarton
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
24.08.2024 Dumbarton Dumbarton 2-2 HT 0-1 Arbroath Arbroath İK1
04.05.2019 Arbroath Arbroath 1-1 HT 0-0 Dumbarton Dumbarton İK1
02.03.2019 Dumbarton Dumbarton 2-0 HT 1-0 Arbroath Arbroath İK1
20.10.2018 Arbroath Arbroath 3-1 HT 0-1 Dumbarton Dumbarton İK1
18.08.2018 Dumbarton Dumbarton 1-1 HT 0-1 Arbroath Arbroath İK1
05.05.2018 Dumbarton Dumbarton 1-1 HT 1-1 Arbroath Arbroath İK1
POST-MATCH Arbroath vs Dumbarton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dumbarton saw off Arbroath 3-1 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 30% / 36% — and on the day Dumbarton made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Arbroath and 1.33 for Dumbarton.

What was the final score of Arbroath vs Dumbarton?

Arbroath 1-3 Dumbarton in the Scotland - 1st Division on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arbroath vs Dumbarton?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dumbarton win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Arbroath 34%, draw 30%, Dumbarton 36%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dumbarton) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dumbarton) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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