Lincoln City 1-3 Birmingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.5
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
39%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.74
Over 2.5
39%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.85
No
60%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.89
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.04
6+ Goals
8%
18.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.89 — our 36% vs market 28.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
6.1
1/2
8%
26.5
1/X
9%
14.45
X/1
10%
7.72
X/2
17%
4.25
X/X
14%
4.32
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
13%
2.63
2/X
6%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
25%
+8.3pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.3pp
39%
Away Win
48%
-9.6pp
61%
Under 2.5
54%
+7.5pp
39%
Over 2.5
46%
-7.5pp
40%
BTTS Yes
50%
-9.9pp
60%
BTTS No
50%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lincoln City EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham EU Bookmakers 52%
+4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.12/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/0.70
-8% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -6%
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
204 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 78%
14.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
13.6 Crosses 21.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lincoln City
1-3
AWAY Birmingham
1.08 xG 0.68
25% Ball Possession 75%
8 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
116 Passes 567
58% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lincoln City vs Birmingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham beat Lincoln City 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (33% / 28% / 39%) promised a tight game; Birmingham found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lincoln City had 25% of the ball to Birmingham's 75%, shots finished 8-7, expected goals 1.08 to 0.68.

What was the final score of Lincoln City vs Birmingham?

Lincoln City 1-3 Birmingham in the England - 1st Division on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lincoln City vs Birmingham?

Before kick-off our model rated an Birmingham win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Lincoln City 33%, draw 28%, Birmingham 39%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Birmingham) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Birmingham) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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