Gosport Borough 3-2 Swindon Supermarine — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.8
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
2.38
Over
47%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.5
No
50%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1
24%
2-3
46%
4-5
19%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
48%
Home Win
51%
-3.7pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.8pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+2.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
38%
+15.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
62%
-15.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
62%
-12.9pp
50%
BTTS No
38%
+12.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gosport Borough The Market 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Swindon Supermarine The Market 29%
-5% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -14%
1.93/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/2.16
+11% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -25%
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
398 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gosport Borough
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Swindon Supermarine
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
16.12.2023 Gosport Borough Gosport Borough 1-2 HT 1-2 Swindon Supermarine Swindon Supermarine İNGNLP
19.08.2023 Swindon Supermarine Swindon Supermarine 0-2 HT 0-1 Gosport Borough Gosport Borough İNGNLP
15.03.2023 Swindon Supermarine Swindon Supermarine 3-1 HT 1-1 Gosport Borough Gosport Borough İNGNLP
17.08.2022 Gosport Borough Gosport Borough 3-1 HT 1-1 Swindon Supermarine Swindon Supermarine İNGNLP
27.11.2021 Gosport Borough Gosport Borough 1-3 HT 0-1 Swindon Supermarine Swindon Supermarine İNGNLP
14.09.2021 Swindon Supermarine Swindon Supermarine 0-0 HT 0-0 Gosport Borough Gosport Borough İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Gosport Borough vs Swindon Supermarine
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gosport Borough nicked a narrow win over Swindon Supermarine 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Gosport Borough as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Swindon Supermarine led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Gosport Borough and 1.50 for Swindon Supermarine.

What was the final score of Gosport Borough vs Swindon Supermarine?

Gosport Borough 3-2 Swindon Supermarine in the England - Non League Premier on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gosport Borough vs Swindon Supermarine?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gosport Borough win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Gosport Borough 48%, draw 25%, Swindon Supermarine 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gosport Borough) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gosport Borough) ✗ Under 2.5
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