Merthyr Town 2-1 Marlow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
63%
1.22
Draw
19%
6.26
Away
18%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under
37%
3.59
Over
63%
1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1
17%
2-3
37%
4-5
30%
6+
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1/2
6%
1/X
3%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
6%
2/1
5%
2/2
6%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Merthyr Town win — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
63%
Home Win
78%
-14.6pp
19%
Draw
13%
+5.8pp
18%
Away Win
9%
+8.9pp
37%
Under 2.5
24%
+12.6pp
63%
Over 2.5
76%
-12.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.0pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Merthyr Town The Market 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Marlow The Market 11%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
2.95/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/5.00
+20% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / -57%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
577 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Merthyr Town vs Marlow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Merthyr Town nicked a narrow win over Marlow 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Merthyr Town as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), and that read landed as well.

What was the final score of Merthyr Town vs Marlow?

Merthyr Town 2-1 Marlow in the England - Non League Premier on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Merthyr Town vs Marlow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Merthyr Town win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Merthyr Town 63%, draw 19%, Marlow 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Merthyr Town), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Merthyr Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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