Athletic Bilbao 4-1 Espanyol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 19 Oct 2024

Athletic Bilbao
4-1 HT 3-0
Espanyol
📅19/10/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Athletic Bilbao vs Espanyol Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.49
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
18%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.06
No
60%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.22
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.65
6+ Goals
9%
14.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 30% vs market 25.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.83
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
18.25
X/1
17%
3.49
X/2
6%
13.15
X/X
14%
5.44
2/1
12%
24.85
2/2
7%
11.3
2/X
5%
19.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
63%
-5.5pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.0pp
18%
Away Win
15%
+3.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.7pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.0pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Athletic Bilbao v Espanyol — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Espanyol EU Bookmakers 18%
-6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -2%
1.57/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.83
-12% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -6%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
432 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 76%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
24.4 Crosses 14.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5

Athletic Bilbao vs Espanyol Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Athletic Bilbao
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Espanyol
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.67 xG 0.66
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
368 Passes 294
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
32 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
08.04.2023 Espanyol Espanyol 1-2 HT 0-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
18.01.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-0 HT 1-0 Espanyol Espanyol İSPK
04.09.2022 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-1 HT 0-0 Espanyol Espanyol İS1
07.02.2022 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-1 HT 2-1 Espanyol Espanyol İS1
26.10.2021 Espanyol Espanyol 1-1 HT 1-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
25.01.2020 Espanyol Espanyol 1-1 HT 0-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1

Athletic Bilbao 4-1 Espanyol — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athletic Bilbao
4-1
AWAY Espanyol
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
400 Passes 275
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
POST-MATCH Athletic Bilbao vs Espanyol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Bilbao ran out comfortable winners over Espanyol 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Athletic Bilbao as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 57% of the ball to Espanyol's 43%, shots finished 10-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Athletic Bilbao had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Athletic Bilbao and 0.83 for Espanyol.

What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs Espanyol?

Athletic Bilbao 4-1 Espanyol in the Spain - Primera Liga on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs Espanyol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 58%, draw 24%, Espanyol 18%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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