Celta Vigo 1-2 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 19 Oct 2024

Celta Vigo
1-2 HT 0-1
Real Madrid
📅19/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.48
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
48%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.21
Over 2.5
50%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.7
No
54%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.37
2-3 Goals
34%
1.88
4-5 Goals
27%
2.95
6+ Goals
10%
8.79
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.37 — our 29% vs market 18.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
7.89
1/2
9%
20.85
1/X
7%
16.35
X/1
8%
10.75
X/2
14%
3.88
X/X
10%
6.17
2/1
10%
34.5
2/2
25%
1.96
2/X
7%
15.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
19%
+8.1pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.6pp
48%
Away Win
58%
-10.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
55%
-8.7pp
54%
BTTS No
45%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Celta Vigo v Real Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celta Vigo EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 62%
-13% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +7%
1.29/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.85/1.05
-16% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +7%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
286 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 83%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.8
18.5 Crosses 17.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.9

Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celta Vigo
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Real Madrid
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.30 xG 2.71
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
360 Passes 539
83% Pass Accuracy 89%
21 Box Touches 32
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.03.2024 Real Madrid Real Madrid 4-0 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
25.08.2023 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0-1 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
22.04.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-0 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
20.08.2022 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-4 HT 1-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
02.04.2022 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-2 HT 0-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
12.09.2021 Real Madrid Real Madrid 5-2 HT 1-2 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1

Celta Vigo 1-2 Real Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Celta Vigo
1-2
AWAY Real Madrid
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
460 Passes 541
87% Pass Accuracy 89%
POST-MATCH Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid edged past Celta Vigo 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Celta Vigo had 47% of the ball to Real Madrid's 53%, shots finished 13-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Celta Vigo and 3.00 for Real Madrid.

What was the final score of Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid?

Celta Vigo 1-2 Real Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Celta Vigo 27%, draw 25%, Real Madrid 48%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✗ BTTS No
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