Brescia 2-5 Sassuolo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.17
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
41%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.97
Over 2.5
55%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.66
No
45%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.72
2-3 Goals
36%
1.82
4-5 Goals
26%
3.26
6+ Goals
12%
11.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.06
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
24.0
1/X
9%
13.3
X/1
11%
7.22
X/2
16%
4.68
X/X
12%
4.9
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
15%
2.75
2/X
8%
12.9
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.0 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
28%
+1.9pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.8pp
41%
Away Win
45%
-4.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
47%
-1.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
53%
+1.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.9pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brescia EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Sassuolo EU Bookmakers 49%
+8% / +30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.35/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/0.55
+32% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +61%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
287 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 80%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
19.4 Crosses 13.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brescia
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Sassuolo
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.04 xG 1.23
32% Ball Possession 68%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
244 Passes 630
79% Pass Accuracy 90%
24 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.03.2020 Sassuolo Sassuolo 3-0 HT 1-0 Brescia Brescia İTA
18.12.2019 Brescia Brescia 0-2 HT 0-1 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
13.04.2013 Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-1 HT 0-1 Brescia Brescia İTB
18.11.2012 Brescia Brescia 1-1 HT 1-1 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTB
27.04.2012 Brescia Brescia 1-2 HT 0-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTB
19.11.2011 Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-1 HT 0-1 Brescia Brescia İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brescia
2-5
AWAY Sassuolo
1.81 xG 2.24
49% Ball Possession 51%
19 Total Shots 21
8 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 3
373 Passes 408
83% Pass Accuracy 87%
25 Box Touches 39
23 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Brescia vs Sassuolo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sassuolo cruised past Brescia 5-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sassuolo as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Brescia had 49% of the ball to Sassuolo's 51%, shots finished 19-21, expected goals 1.81 to 2.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sassuolo led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Brescia and 1.67 for Sassuolo.

What was the final score of Brescia vs Sassuolo?

Brescia 2-5 Sassuolo in the Italy - Serie B on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brescia vs Sassuolo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sassuolo win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Brescia 30%, draw 29%, Sassuolo 41%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sassuolo), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sassuolo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTB More Italy - Serie B
19 Oct 2024
00:00 Cittadella vs Cosenza Calcio Analysis →
16:00 Salernitana vs Spezia Analysis →
16:00 Modena vs Palermo Analysis →
16:00 Südtirol vs Pisa Analysis →