Albirex Niigata (K) 2-1 AS Elfen Saitama (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - WE League Women's, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.89
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.52
Over 2.5
39%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.16
No
61%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
23%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
49%
-7.4pp
31%
Draw
28%
+3.2pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+4.2pp
61%
Under 2.5
62%
-0.8pp
39%
Over 2.5
38%
+0.8pp
39%
BTTS Yes
42%
-2.6pp
61%
BTTS No
58%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Albirex Niigata (K) EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY AS Elfen Saitama (K) EU Bookmakers 26%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
0.78/0.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.00
-48% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
304 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.3 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Albirex Niigata (K)
2W-0D-0L
AWAY AS Elfen Saitama (K)
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
57% Ball Possession 43%
7 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 1
18.04.2024 AS Elfen Saitama (K) AS Elfen Saitama (K) 1-2 HT 0-1 Albirex Niigata (K) Albirex Niigata (K) JWEL
16.03.2024 Albirex Niigata (K) Albirex Niigata (K) 1-0 HT 0-0 AS Elfen Saitama (K) AS Elfen Saitama (K) JWEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Albirex Niigata (K)
2-1
AWAY AS Elfen Saitama (K)
66% Ball Possession 34%
14 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Albirex Niigata (K) vs AS Elfen Saitama (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Albirex Niigata (K) edged past AS Elfen Saitama (K) 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Albirex Niigata (K) as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Albirex Niigata (K) had 66% of the ball to AS Elfen Saitama (K)'s 34%, shots finished 14-6.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Albirex Niigata (K) had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Albirex Niigata (K) and 0.50 for AS Elfen Saitama (K).

What was the final score of Albirex Niigata (K) vs AS Elfen Saitama (K)?

Albirex Niigata (K) 2-1 AS Elfen Saitama (K) in the Japan - WE League Women's on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Albirex Niigata (K) vs AS Elfen Saitama (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Albirex Niigata (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Albirex Niigata (K) 42%, draw 31%, AS Elfen Saitama (K) 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Albirex Niigata (K)) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Albirex Niigata (K)) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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