Progress / AFA Olaine 1-4 Super Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 19 Oct 2024

Progress / AFA Olaine
1-4
Super Nova
📅19/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Latvia - 1st Division – 2024

Progress / AFA Olaine vs Super Nova Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
16%
7.18
Draw
26%
4.81
Away
58%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.38
Over 2.5
50%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
21%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
4%
1/X
11%
X/1
4%
X/2
22%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
33%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
16%
Home Win
11%
+5.2pp
26%
Draw
18%
+8.0pp
58%
Away Win
71%
-13.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
38%
+11.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
62%
-11.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.8pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Progress / AFA Olaine v Super Nova — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progress / AFA Olaine EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY Super Nova EU Bookmakers 75%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
1.44/2.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/0.77
+47% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +34%
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 7
194 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 445 · 80%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Progress / AFA Olaine vs Super Nova Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progress / AFA Olaine
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Super Nova
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
The Meetings
29.06.2024 Super Nova Super Nova 4-1 HT 1-0 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine LET1
POST-MATCH Progress / AFA Olaine vs Super Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Super Nova ran out comfortable winners over Progress / AFA Olaine 4-1 away from home. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Super Nova as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

What was the final score of Progress / AFA Olaine vs Super Nova?

Progress / AFA Olaine 1-4 Super Nova in the Latvia - 1st Division on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progress / AFA Olaine vs Super Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated an Super Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Progress / AFA Olaine 16%, draw 26%, Super Nova 58%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Super Nova) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Super Nova) ✗ BTTS No
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