CA La Paz 2-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.82
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
2.33
Over 2.5
67%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%
1.53
No
36%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
17%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
51%
-0.6pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.7pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.4pp
33%
Under 2.5
39%
-6.0pp
67%
Over 2.5
61%
+6.0pp
64%
BTTS Yes
61%
+2.4pp
36%
BTTS No
39%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA La Paz EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Alebrijes de Oaxaca EU Bookmakers 29%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -3%
2.04/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.47
+31% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -3%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
318 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 4.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA La Paz
4W-1D-0L
AWAY Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
21.04.2024 CA La Paz CA La Paz 3-2 HT 0-2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
23.03.2024 CA La Paz CA La Paz 2-1 HT 0-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
20.09.2023 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2-2 HT 1-1 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
25.03.2023 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-2 HT 1-2 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
30.09.2022 CA La Paz CA La Paz 2-1 HT 0-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
POST-MATCH CA La Paz vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA La Paz edged past Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had CA La Paz as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (67%), both teams to score (64%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, CA La Paz had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.20 goals for CA La Paz and 1.40 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca.

What was the final score of CA La Paz vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?

CA La Paz 2-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca in the Mexico - Primera A on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA La Paz vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA La Paz win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split CA La Paz 50%, draw 22%, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA La Paz), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (CA La Paz) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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