Birkirkara 3-2 Hamrun Spartans — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Malta - Premier League, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.08
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
46%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.59
Over 2.5
47%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.96
No
50%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
13%
X/1
6%
X/2
18%
X/X
11%
2/1
3%
2/2
23%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
29%
-4.1pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.7pp
46%
Away Win
41%
+4.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
59%
-5.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
41%
+5.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.7pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birkirkara EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Hamrun Spartans EU Bookmakers 45%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
0.76/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.18
-18% / +75% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -20%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
248 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Birkirkara
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Hamrun Spartans
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
5 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 4
07.04.2024 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans 2-0 HT 1-0 Birkirkara Birkirkara MLTP
30.03.2024 Birkirkara Birkirkara 2-2 HT 1-1 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans MLTAK
02.12.2023 Birkirkara Birkirkara 3-0 HT 1-0 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans MLTP
25.02.2023 Birkirkara Birkirkara 1-0 HT 1-0 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans MLTAK
19.02.2023 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans 0-0 HT 0-0 Birkirkara Birkirkara MLTP
15.10.2022 Birkirkara Birkirkara 0-0 HT 0-0 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans MLTP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Birkirkara
3-2
AWAY Hamrun Spartans
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 1
POST-MATCH Birkirkara vs Hamrun Spartans
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birkirkara nicked a narrow win over Hamrun Spartans 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Hamrun Spartans at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Birkirkara had 46% of the ball to Hamrun Spartans's 54%, shots finished 7-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Birkirkara had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Birkirkara and 0.67 for Hamrun Spartans.

What was the final score of Birkirkara vs Hamrun Spartans?

Birkirkara 3-2 Hamrun Spartans in the Malta - Premier League on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birkirkara vs Hamrun Spartans?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hamrun Spartans win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Birkirkara 25%, draw 29%, Hamrun Spartans 46%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hamrun Spartans) ✗ Under 2.5
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