Milan 2-1 Fiorentina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 19 Oct 2025

Milan
2 - 1 HT 0 - 0
Fiorentina
📅19/10/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
55%
1.72
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
19%
4.55
Under/Over 2.5
Under
52%
1.78
Over
48%
1.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2.77
2-3
46%
1.75
4-5
21%
3.98
6+
5%
18.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
2.22
1/2
1%
35.0
1/X
5%
14.9
X/1
20%
4.08
X/2
8%
9.68
X/X
16%
4.61
2/1
3%
26.0
2/2
10%
8.33
2/X
5%
16.75
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
Our Pick = the view of our model: the outcome it rates most likely. A forecast, not a bet.
SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Milan The Market 58%
Signal
AWAY Fiorentina The Market 22%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
1.84 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.07
0.91 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.58
Strong Attack Strength Average
Strong Defense Strength Average
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
370 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 79%
26 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Fiorentina
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.10 xG 1.64
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
338 Passes 310
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
05.04.2025 Milan Milan 2-2 HT 1-2 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
06.10.2024 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-1 HT 1-0 Milan Milan İTA
30.03.2024 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-2 HT 0-0 Milan Milan İTA
25.11.2023 Milan Milan 1-0 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
04.03.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-1 HT 0-0 Milan Milan İTA
13.11.2022 Milan Milan 2-1 HT 1-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
2 - 1
AWAY Fiorentina
1.98 xG 1.14
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 3
424 Passes 306
87% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 10
13 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
REVIEW Milan vs Fiorentina
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Milan found just enough to beat Fiorentina 2-1. It stood 0-0 at the interval — everything that mattered happened after the restart.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Milan as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

The goals picture was genuinely open: 48% for over 2.5, 49% on both teams scoring. At 1.73 (~58%), the BTTS-no price was shorter than our number — the market leaned harder than we did.

Under the surface, Milan had 56% of the ball to Fiorentina's 44%, shots finished 14-5, expected goals 1.98 to 1.14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Milan and 1.33 for Fiorentina.

Milan vs Fiorentina Result & Final Score

Milan 2 - 1 Fiorentina in the Italy - Serie A on 19/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Milan vs Fiorentina Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Milan 55%, draw 26%, Fiorentina 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTA More Italy - Serie A
19 Oct 2025
13:30 Como vs Juventus Analysis →
16:00 Cagliari vs Bologna Analysis →
16:00 Genoa vs Parma Analysis →
19:00 Atalanta vs Lazio Analysis →