Excelsior 1-0 Fortuna Sittard — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 19 Oct 2025

📅19/10/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.95
Over 2.5
55%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-0.5pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.8pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+2.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
48%
-2.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
52%
+2.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.1pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Excelsior EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 32%
-16% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
1.37/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.44
-30% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
321 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 77%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
18.8 Crosses 18.1
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.52 xG 1.48
49% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
295 Passes 316
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.03.2024 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 5-2 HT 4-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
26.08.2023 Excelsior Excelsior 2-2 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
21.05.2023 Excelsior Excelsior 3-0 HT 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
17.09.2022 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-0 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
10.02.2019 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 4-1 HT 2-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
11.08.2018 Excelsior Excelsior 1-1 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior
1-0
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
1.06 xG 1.16
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 2
311 Passes 308
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Excelsior vs Fortuna Sittard
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior squeezed past Fortuna Sittard 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Excelsior as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Excelsior had 50% of the ball to Fortuna Sittard's 50%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 1.06 to 1.16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortuna Sittard led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Excelsior and 2.17 for Fortuna Sittard.

What was the final score of Excelsior vs Fortuna Sittard?

Excelsior 1-0 Fortuna Sittard in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 19/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Excelsior vs Fortuna Sittard?

Before kick-off our model rated a Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 45%, draw 25%, Fortuna Sittard 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Excelsior) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Excelsior) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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