AS Marsa 0-1 ES Metlaoui — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Tunisia - 1st Division, 19 Oct 2025

📅19/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
18%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.52
Over 2.5
44%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.33
No
52%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
57%
-0.2pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.0pp
18%
Away Win
18%
+0.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
62%
-5.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
38%
+5.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
39%
+8.8pp
52%
BTTS No
61%
-8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AS Marsa EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY ES Metlaoui EU Bookmakers 21%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +7%
0.87/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.50/0.92
-38% / -48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +44%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
320 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AS Marsa
2W-3D-1L
AWAY ES Metlaoui
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
12.05.2024 AS Marsa AS Marsa 1-0 HT 0-0 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN
18.02.2024 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui 3-1 HT 1-0 AS Marsa AS Marsa TUN
03.01.2024 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui 0-1 HT 0-1 AS Marsa AS Marsa TUN1B
22.10.2023 AS Marsa AS Marsa 1-1 HT 0-1 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN1B
31.10.2015 AS Marsa AS Marsa 0-0 HT 0-0 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN1
19.04.2015 AS Marsa AS Marsa 2-2 HT 1-0 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AS Marsa
0-1
AWAY ES Metlaoui
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 4
13 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ES Metlaoui edged past AS Marsa 1-0 away from home.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had AS Marsa at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, AS Marsa had 62% of the ball to ES Metlaoui's 38%, shots finished 17-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AS Marsa had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for AS Marsa and 1.00 for ES Metlaoui.

What was the final score of AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui?

AS Marsa 0-1 ES Metlaoui in the Tunisia - 1st Division on 19/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui?

Before kick-off our model rated a AS Marsa win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split AS Marsa 57%, draw 26%, ES Metlaoui 18%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (AS Marsa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AS Marsa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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