AS Marsa 1-0 ES Metlaoui — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Tunisia - 1st Division Yükselme / Düşme, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.96
Draw
34%
3.04
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.44
Over 2.5
35%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.4
No
55%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
1.98
2-3 Goals
41%
1.85
4-5 Goals
17%
6.72
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
16%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
47%
-6.8pp
34%
Draw
29%
+5.1pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+1.7pp
65%
Under 2.5
66%
-0.5pp
35%
Over 2.5
34%
+0.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
38%
+7.4pp
55%
BTTS No
62%
-7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AS Marsa EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY ES Metlaoui EU Bookmakers 28%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
0.50/0.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.52/0.95
-49% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +9%
58% Ball Possession 42%
9 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
340 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AS Marsa
1W-3D-1L
AWAY ES Metlaoui
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
18.02.2024 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui 3-1 HT 1-0 AS Marsa AS Marsa TUN
03.01.2024 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui 0-1 HT 0-1 AS Marsa AS Marsa TUN1B
22.10.2023 AS Marsa AS Marsa 1-1 HT 0-1 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN1B
31.10.2015 AS Marsa AS Marsa 0-0 HT 0-0 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN1
19.04.2015 AS Marsa AS Marsa 2-2 HT 1-0 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AS Marsa
1-0
AWAY ES Metlaoui
56% Ball Possession 44%
7 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AS Marsa edged past ES Metlaoui 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 34% / 26%) promised a tight game; AS Marsa found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, AS Marsa had 56% of the ball to ES Metlaoui's 44%, shots finished 7-8.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for AS Marsa and 1.20 for ES Metlaoui.

What was the final score of AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui?

AS Marsa 1-0 ES Metlaoui in the Tunisia - 1st Division Yükselme / Düşme on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui?

Before kick-off our model rated a AS Marsa win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split AS Marsa 40%, draw 34%, ES Metlaoui 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AS Marsa), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AS Marsa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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