Curaçao 4-1 St. Lucia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CONCACAF Champions League, 19 Nov 2024

📅19/11/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.28
Draw
16%
5.28
Away
23%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.61
Over 2.5
63%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.94
2-3 Goals
34%
2.07
4-5 Goals
30%
2.62
6+ Goals
13%
5.98
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
42%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
4%
X/X
7%
2/1
4%
2/2
12%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
74%
-13.0pp
16%
Draw
16%
+0.6pp
23%
Away Win
11%
+12.5pp
37%
Under 2.5
35%
+2.0pp
63%
Over 2.5
65%
-2.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.5pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Curaçao EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Lucia EU Bookmakers 14%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
1.41/0.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.51/1.51
-8% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +31%
60% Ball Possession 40%
19 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
441 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 76%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
14.5 Crosses 8.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Curaçao
0W-0D-1L
AWAY St. Lucia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.12 xG 0.92
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
323 Passes 139
82% Pass Accuracy 64%
27 Box Touches 10
31 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
07.09.2024 St. Lucia St. Lucia 2-1 HT 1-0 Curaçao Curaçao CON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Curaçao
4-1
AWAY St. Lucia
3.25 xG 0.80
68% Ball Possession 32%
21 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 1
406 Passes 136
84% Pass Accuracy 63%
32 Box Touches 7
10 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Curaçao vs St. Lucia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Curaçao cruised past St. Lucia 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Curaçao as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%) came in.

On the day, Curaçao had 68% of the ball to St. Lucia's 32%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 3.25 to 0.80.

What was the final score of Curaçao vs St. Lucia?

Curaçao 4-1 St. Lucia in the CONCACAF Champions League on 19/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Curaçao vs St. Lucia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Curaçao win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Curaçao 60%, draw 16%, St. Lucia 23%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Curaçao), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Curaçao) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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