Ebbsfleet United 0-1 Hartlepool United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 20 Jan 2024

📅20/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.02
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
42%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.46
No
43%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.13
2-3 Goals
41%
1.94
4-5 Goals
27%
2.67
6+ Goals
11%
6.73
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.74
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
29.0
1/X
7%
12.3
X/1
12%
5.07
X/2
15%
7.16
X/X
10%
5.63
2/1
5%
21.75
2/2
20%
4.42
2/X
7%
12.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.0 — our 7% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
46%
-11.4pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.6pp
42%
Away Win
30%
+11.9pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
64%
-7.9pp
43%
BTTS No
36%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ebbsfleet United EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Hartlepool United EU Bookmakers 33%
-8% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -3%
1.58/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.60
+2% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
294 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 65%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ebbsfleet United
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Hartlepool United
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.11.2023 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 2-2 HT 1-1 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United İBSL
07.03.2020 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 0-1 HT 0-0 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United İBSL
16.11.2019 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United 2-2 HT 0-2 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United İBSL
19.02.2019 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United 0-0 HT 0-0 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United İBSL
11.08.2018 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 0-1 HT 0-0 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United İBSL
24.02.2018 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 0-1 HT 0-1 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ebbsfleet United
0-1
AWAY Hartlepool United
57% Ball Possession 43%
7 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ebbsfleet United vs Hartlepool United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hartlepool United edged past Ebbsfleet United 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Hartlepool United as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ebbsfleet United had 57% of the ball to Hartlepool United's 43%, shots finished 7-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ebbsfleet United had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Ebbsfleet United and 0.67 for Hartlepool United.

What was the final score of Ebbsfleet United vs Hartlepool United?

Ebbsfleet United 0-1 Hartlepool United in the England - National League on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ebbsfleet United vs Hartlepool United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hartlepool United win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Ebbsfleet United 34%, draw 24%, Hartlepool United 42%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hartlepool United) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hartlepool United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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