Palermo 4-2 Modena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 20 Jan 2024

Palermo
4-2 HT 2-1
Modena
📅20/01/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2023/2024

Palermo vs Modena Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
32%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.91
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
3.97
6+ Goals
9%
18.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.79
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
13.4
X/1
16%
4.42
X/2
16%
7.16
X/X
11%
4.27
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
11%
5.52
2/X
5%
13.9
Value flag · 1/X at 13.4 — our 10% vs market 4.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-5.1pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.2pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+6.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.5pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Palermo v Modena — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palermo EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Modena EU Bookmakers 30%
-7% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +6%
1.33/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.53
-1% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -14%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
287 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 74%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
24.7 Crosses 18.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.6

Palermo vs Modena Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palermo
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Modena
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.22 xG 1.15
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
309 Passes 324
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.10.2023 Modena Modena 0-2 HT 0-0 Palermo Palermo İTB
17.03.2023 Palermo Palermo 5-2 HT 1-2 Modena Modena İTB
29.10.2022 Modena Modena 0-2 HT 0-2 Palermo Palermo İTB
23.08.2014 Palermo Palermo 0-3 HT 0-2 Modena Modena İTK
25.01.2014 Palermo Palermo 0-0 HT 0-0 Modena Modena İTB
24.08.2013 Modena Modena 1-1 HT 0-1 Palermo Palermo İTB

Palermo 4-2 Modena — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palermo
4-2
AWAY Modena
2.53 xG 1.34
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 8
389 Passes 305
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
35 Box Touches 17
28 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Palermo vs Modena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palermo got the better of Modena 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Palermo as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Palermo had 54% of the ball to Modena's 46%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 2.53 to 1.34.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palermo had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Palermo and 1.00 for Modena.

What was the final score of Palermo vs Modena?

Palermo 4-2 Modena in the Italy - Serie B on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palermo vs Modena?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palermo win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Palermo 41%, draw 27%, Modena 33%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palermo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Palermo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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