Macarthur 1-2 Wellington Phoenix — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 20 Jan 2025

Macarthur
1-2 HT 1-0
Wellington Phoenix
📅20/01/2025 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.72
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
30%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.3
2-3 Goals
43%
1.87
4-5 Goals
23%
2.83
6+ Goals
10%
8.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.3 — our 24% vs market 17.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.19
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.9
X/1
16%
4.41
X/2
9%
9.15
X/X
11%
5.95
2/1
8%
20.3
2/2
14%
6.65
2/X
5%
15.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
54%
-7.0pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.4pp
29%
Away Win
23%
+6.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.0pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Macarthur v Wellington Phoenix — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macarthur EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 26%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +18%
2.67/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.83
+33% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
414 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 80%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
18.6 Crosses 14.2
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.4

Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macarthur
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.56 xG 2.02
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
464 Passes 376
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 25
24 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.12.2024 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-2 HT 1-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
27.04.2024 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 3-0 HT 2-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
18.02.2024 Macarthur Macarthur 1-2 HT 0-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
18.12.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 0-3 HT 0-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
29.04.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 0-1 HT 0-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
12.02.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 2-1 HT 1-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS

Macarthur 1-2 Wellington Phoenix — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macarthur
1-2
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
2.59 xG 1.56
57% Ball Possession 43%
30 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 2
435 Passes 323
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
62 Box Touches 19
33 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wellington Phoenix edged past Macarthur 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Macarthur at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Macarthur had 57% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 43%, shots finished 30-9, expected goals 2.59 to 1.56 — the balance of chances actually favoured Macarthur.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wellington Phoenix led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Macarthur and 1.83 for Wellington Phoenix.

What was the final score of Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix?

Macarthur 1-2 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 20/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix?

Before kick-off our model rated a Macarthur win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Macarthur 47%, draw 23%, Wellington Phoenix 29%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Macarthur) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Macarthur) ✓ Over 2.5
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