Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Wellington Phoenix v Macarthur — Team-Based Signals
Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-3
HT 0-1
Wellington Phoenix
AVUS
0-1
HT 0-1
Wellington Phoenix
AVUS
2-1
HT 1-1
Wellington Phoenix
AVUS
4-1
HT 1-0
Macarthur
AVUS
Wellington Phoenix 1-2 Macarthur — Actual Match Statistics
Macarthur squeezed past Wellington Phoenix 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Wellington Phoenix at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Wellington Phoenix had 56% of the ball to Macarthur's 44%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.07 to 1.80.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wellington Phoenix had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Wellington Phoenix and 0.67 for Macarthur.
What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur?
Wellington Phoenix 1-2 Macarthur in the Australia - A-League on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur?
Before kick-off our model rated a Wellington Phoenix win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix 45%, draw 27%, Macarthur 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.