Sydney 3-4 Western United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 14 Dec 2024

Sydney
3-4 HT 2-1
Western United
📅14/12/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Sydney vs Western United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.49
Draw
26%
4.34
Away
27%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.98
Over 2.5
55%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.46
No
45%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
7.1
2-3 Goals
40%
2.19
4-5 Goals
26%
2.38
6+ Goals
14%
4.44
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1.84
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
15.95
X/1
22%
4.21
X/2
8%
12.1
X/X
7%
7.96
2/1
6%
18.1
2/2
11%
7.56
2/X
7%
16.0
Value flag · 1/X at 15.95 — our 11% vs market 3.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
63%
-15.4pp
26%
Draw
20%
+5.8pp
27%
Away Win
18%
+9.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
30%
+15.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
70%
-15.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
64%
-9.0pp
45%
BTTS No
36%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sydney v Western United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sydney EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Western United EU Bookmakers 21%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +11%
1.94/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.78
+10% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
396 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 78%
36.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
18.6 Crosses 16.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

Sydney vs Western United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sydney
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Western United
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.11 xG 1.72
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
432 Passes 305
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
30 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.02.2024 Western United Western United 2-2 HT 1-2 Sydney Sydney AVUS
23.12.2023 Sydney Sydney 4-2 HT 2-1 Western United Western United AVUS
17.09.2023 Sydney Sydney 3-0 HT 2-0 Western United Western United AVUK
01.04.2023 Sydney Sydney 3-3 HT 1-2 Western United Western United AVUS
21.01.2023 Western United Western United 1-0 HT 0-0 Sydney Sydney AVUS
16.10.2022 Western United Western United 1-3 HT 1-2 Sydney Sydney AVUS

Sydney 3-4 Western United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sydney
3-4
AWAY Western United
2.90 xG 2.75
64% Ball Possession 36%
26 Total Shots 19
13 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 6
428 Passes 206
87% Pass Accuracy 76%
30 Box Touches 30
17 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Sydney vs Western United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Western United nicked a narrow win over Sydney 4-3 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Sydney at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Sydney had 64% of the ball to Western United's 36%, shots finished 26-19, expected goals 2.90 to 2.75.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sydney had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Sydney and 1.50 for Western United.

What was the final score of Sydney vs Western United?

Sydney 3-4 Western United in the Australia - A-League on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sydney vs Western United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sydney win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Sydney 47%, draw 26%, Western United 27%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sydney) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sydney) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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