Bangkok United 1-1 Nakhon Pathom — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 20 Jan 2025

📅20/01/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
54%
1.3
Draw
24%
5.15
Away
22%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
Over
54%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
24%
2-3
34%
4-5
27%
6+
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
11%
2/2
8%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Bangkok United win — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
55%
Home Win
72%
-18.0pp
24%
Draw
16%
+7.1pp
22%
Away Win
11%
+10.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.3pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bangkok United The Market 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Nakhon Pathom The Market 14%
-1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.83/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.44
+8% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +14%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
362 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 79%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
18.1 Crosses 15.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bangkok United
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Nakhon Pathom
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.46 xG 0.94
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
442 Passes 186
88% Pass Accuracy 71%
26 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 0
29.08.2024 Nakhon Pathom Nakhon Pathom 0-3 HT 0-2 Bangkok United Bangkok United TAY
21.04.2024 Nakhon Pathom Nakhon Pathom 1-2 HT 1-0 Bangkok United Bangkok United TAY
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bangkok United
1-1
AWAY Nakhon Pathom
0.47 xG 0.94
61% Ball Possession 39%
10 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 2
491 Passes 278
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 13
21 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bangkok United vs Nakhon Pathom
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bangkok United and Nakhon Pathom shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Bangkok United at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Bangkok United had 61% of the ball to Nakhon Pathom's 39%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 0.47 to 0.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Bangkok United had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Bangkok United and 0.50 for Nakhon Pathom.

What was the final score of Bangkok United vs Nakhon Pathom?

Bangkok United 1-1 Nakhon Pathom in the Thailand - 1st Division on 20/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bangkok United vs Nakhon Pathom?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bangkok United win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Bangkok United 55%, draw 24%, Nakhon Pathom 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bangkok United), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bangkok United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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