Atletico Paranaense 0-1 Corinthians — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 20 Feb 2026

📅20/02/2026 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.47
Draw
28%
2.88
Away
29%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.59
Over 2.5
46%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.4
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
21%
4.59
6+ Goals
9%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.8
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
12%
5.43
X/2
12%
5.89
X/X
13%
3.66
2/1
7%
33.5
2/2
11%
4.33
2/X
7%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
37%
+6.6pp
28%
Draw
31%
-3.6pp
29%
Away Win
32%
-3.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-5.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+5.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.3pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Corinthians EU Bookmakers 36%
+3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +2%
1.48/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.34
+0% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +22%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
329 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 80%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
21.2 Crosses 15.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Paranaense
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Corinthians
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.42 xG 1.27
44% Ball Possession 56%
17 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
299 Passes 416
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
24 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
11.09.2025 Corinthians Corinthians 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BRK
28.08.2025 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 0-1 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BRK
18.10.2024 Corinthians Corinthians 5-2 HT 2-2 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
23.06.2024 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-1 HT 1-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
02.11.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
24.06.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-0 HT 1-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Paranaense
0-1
AWAY Corinthians
2.05 xG 0.20
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 0
362 Passes 266
86% Pass Accuracy 75%
33 Box Touches 3
18 Crosses 2
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Corinthians squeezed past Atletico Paranaense 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Paranaense at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Atletico Paranaense had 56% of the ball to Corinthians's 44%, shots finished 18-4, expected goals 2.05 to 0.20 — on chances, Atletico Paranaense could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Corinthians led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.67 for Corinthians.

What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians?

Atletico Paranaense 0-1 Corinthians in the Brazil - Serie A on 20/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Atletico Paranaense 43%, draw 28%, Corinthians 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✓ Under 2.5
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