Atletico Paranaense 0-1 Corinthians — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 28 Aug 2025

📅28/08/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.27
Draw
33%
2.83
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.41
Over 2.5
35%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.29
No
57%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
1.9
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
15%
6.45
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
3.49
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.85
X/1
21%
4.64
X/2
11%
6.17
X/X
17%
3.24
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
8%
5.37
2/X
8%
15.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-1.5pp
33%
Draw
32%
+1.3pp
28%
Away Win
28%
+0.1pp
65%
Under 2.5
67%
-2.0pp
35%
Over 2.5
33%
+2.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
40%
+3.0pp
57%
BTTS No
60%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Corinthians EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
1.48/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.26
-24% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
356 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 78%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
23.9 Crosses 18.4
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Paranaense
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Corinthians
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.60 xG 1.25
46% Ball Possession 54%
21 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 3
312 Passes 398
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
26 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.10.2024 Corinthians Corinthians 5-2 HT 2-2 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
23.06.2024 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-1 HT 1-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
02.11.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
24.06.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-0 HT 1-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
09.10.2022 Corinthians Corinthians 2-1 HT 2-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
16.06.2022 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-1 HT 0-1 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Paranaense
0-1
AWAY Corinthians
0.80 xG 1.43
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
280 Passes 424
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
26 Box Touches 12
25 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Corinthians edged past Atletico Paranaense 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 33% / 28% — and on the day Corinthians made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Atletico Paranaense had 42% of the ball to Corinthians's 58%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 0.80 to 1.43.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Corinthians led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.67 for Corinthians.

What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians?

Atletico Paranaense 0-1 Corinthians in the Brazil - Cup on 28/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Atletico Paranaense 39%, draw 33%, Corinthians 28%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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