Vasco da Gama 1-1 Botafogo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 28 Aug 2025

📅28/08/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.8
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
32%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.64
Over 2.5
39%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.55
2-3 Goals
43%
1.72
4-5 Goals
16%
4.23
6+ Goals
8%
21.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.55 — our 33% vs market 31.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.47
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
5%
12.85
X/1
19%
6.11
X/2
12%
5.28
X/X
16%
3.82
2/1
10%
34.5
2/2
14%
3.56
2/X
7%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
32%
+7.4pp
28%
Draw
31%
-2.6pp
32%
Away Win
37%
-4.8pp
61%
Under 2.5
57%
+3.5pp
39%
Over 2.5
43%
-3.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.4pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo EU Bookmakers 40%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +11%
1.34/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/0.99
+55% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +51%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
324 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 79%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
27.0 Crosses 12.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vasco da Gama
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Botafogo
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.54 xG 1.70
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
351 Passes 374
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
13.07.2025 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-2 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
06.11.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 3-0 HT 2-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
30.06.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-1 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
07.11.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-0 HT 1-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
02.07.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 2-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
17.02.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BRC1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vasco da Gama
1-1
AWAY Botafogo
2.50 xG 0.53
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
382 Passes 318
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 7
17 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Vasco da Gama vs Botafogo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vasco da Gama and Botafogo shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 32% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (61%) came in.

On the day, Vasco da Gama had 54% of the ball to Botafogo's 46%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 2.50 to 0.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Botafogo led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.33 for Botafogo.

What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Botafogo?

Vasco da Gama 1-1 Botafogo in the Brazil - Cup on 28/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Botafogo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vasco da Gama win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 40%, draw 28%, Botafogo 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Vasco da Gama), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vasco da Gama) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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