Polonya U21 3-3 Danimarka U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 20 Mar 2025

📅20/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.29
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
38%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.76
No
56%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.01
2-3 Goals
37%
1.73
4-5 Goals
23%
3.49
6+ Goals
7%
14.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 33% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
6%
X/2
20%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
27%
+6.7pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
38%
Away Win
47%
-8.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.7pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Polonya U21 EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Danimarka U21 EU Bookmakers 51%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -27%
2.57/1.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.45/2.55
+100% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +50% / -51%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
319 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 80%
6.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
9.0 Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Polonya U21
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Danimarka U21
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
34% Ball Possession 66%
11 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
12.10.2018 Danimarka U21 Danimarka U21 1-1 HT 1-1 Polonya U21 Polonya U21 U21
14.11.2017 Polonya U21 Polonya U21 3-1 HT 2-0 Danimarka U21 Danimarka U21 U21
10.08.2011 Polonya U21 Polonya U21 1-0 HT 0-0 Danimarka U21 Danimarka U21 HAZ
13.11.2009 Danimarka U21 Danimarka U21 0-1 HT 0-0 Polonya U21 Polonya U21 HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Polonya U21
3-3
AWAY Danimarka U21
1.79 xG 1.98
46% Ball Possession 54%
17 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 2
351 Passes 418
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Crosses 14
POST-MATCH Polonya U21 vs Danimarka U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Polonya U21 and Danimarka U21 shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (34% / 29% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Polonya U21 had 46% of the ball to Danimarka U21's 54%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 1.79 to 1.98.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Polonya U21 had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Polonya U21 and 0.50 for Danimarka U21.

What was the final score of Polonya U21 vs Danimarka U21?

Polonya U21 3-3 Danimarka U21 in the Friendlies on 20/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Polonya U21 vs Danimarka U21?

Before kick-off our model rated an Danimarka U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Polonya U21 34%, draw 29%, Danimarka U21 38%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Danimarka U21) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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