Oldham Athletic 2-3 Wealdstone — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒14:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.02
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.95
Over 2.5
43%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.68
No
55%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.55
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.38
6+ Goals
8%
12.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.55 — our 30% vs market 22.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.86
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.35
X/1
18%
4.66
X/2
12%
6.81
X/X
14%
4.9
2/1
6%
24.45
2/2
10%
4.84
2/X
8%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-1.0pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-1.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+9.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-9.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.6pp
55%
BTTS No
44%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oldham Athletic EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Wealdstone EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -10%
1.58/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.74
+3% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -18%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
308 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 206 · 65%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Oldham Athletic
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Wealdstone
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
30.09.2023 Wealdstone Wealdstone 1-1 HT 1-1 Oldham Athletic Oldham Athletic İBSL
28.03.2023 Wealdstone Wealdstone 2-2 HT 0-1 Oldham Athletic Oldham Athletic İBSL
16.08.2022 Oldham Athletic Oldham Athletic 1-2 HT 0-2 Wealdstone Wealdstone İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Oldham Athletic
2-3
AWAY Wealdstone
36% Ball Possession 64%
6 Total Shots 21
2 Shots on Target 11
4 Corners 7
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Oldham Athletic vs Wealdstone
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wealdstone edged past Oldham Athletic 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Oldham Athletic at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Oldham Athletic had 36% of the ball to Wealdstone's 64%, shots finished 6-21.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Wealdstone led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Oldham Athletic and 1.67 for Wealdstone.

What was the final score of Oldham Athletic vs Wealdstone?

Oldham Athletic 2-3 Wealdstone in the England - National League on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oldham Athletic vs Wealdstone?

Before kick-off our model rated a Oldham Athletic win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Oldham Athletic 45%, draw 28%, Wealdstone 28%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Oldham Athletic) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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