Hamburg 0-1 Holstein Kiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 20 Apr 2024

Hamburg
0-1 HT 0-0
Holstein Kiel
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Hamburg vs Holstein Kiel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.05
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
38%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.61
Over 2.5
60%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.39
No
42%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.13
2-3 Goals
40%
2.08
4-5 Goals
28%
2.56
6+ Goals
11%
5.62
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.74
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
27.5
1/X
8%
12.2
X/1
17%
5.28
X/2
8%
7.25
X/X
11%
6.02
2/1
6%
21.2
2/2
21%
4.24
2/X
6%
12.35
Value flag · 1/2 at 27.5 — our 9% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
45%
-7.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.1pp
38%
Away Win
31%
+7.0pp
40%
Under 2.5
35%
+4.9pp
60%
Over 2.5
65%
-4.9pp
58%
BTTS Yes
68%
-9.4pp
42%
BTTS No
32%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hamburg v Holstein Kiel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hamburg EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 34%
+7% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +29%
2.17/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.41
+24% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / +31%
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
324 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 77%
31.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
22.4 Crosses 19.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.8

Hamburg vs Holstein Kiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hamburg
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Holstein Kiel
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.08 xG 1.11
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 6
409 Passes 267
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
34 Box Touches 20
26 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.11.2023 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 4-2 HT 1-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
18.03.2023 Hamburg Hamburg 0-0 HT 0-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
09.09.2022 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 2-3 HT 0-1 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
10.04.2022 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 1-0 HT 1-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
30.10.2021 Hamburg Hamburg 1-1 HT 1-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
08.03.2021 Hamburg Hamburg 1-1 HT 1-1 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2

Hamburg 0-1 Holstein Kiel — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hamburg
0-1
AWAY Holstein Kiel
1.58 xG 0.94
63% Ball Possession 37%
21 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
13 Corners 4
369 Passes 185
83% Pass Accuracy 68%
39 Box Touches 18
43 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hamburg vs Holstein Kiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Holstein Kiel edged past Hamburg 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 24% / 38% — and on the day Holstein Kiel made the difference. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hamburg had 63% of the ball to Holstein Kiel's 37%, shots finished 21-13, expected goals 1.58 to 0.94 — the balance of chances actually favoured Hamburg.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Holstein Kiel led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Hamburg and 1.50 for Holstein Kiel.

What was the final score of Hamburg vs Holstein Kiel?

Hamburg 0-1 Holstein Kiel in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hamburg vs Holstein Kiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hamburg win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Hamburg 38%, draw 24%, Holstein Kiel 38%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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