Düren Merzenich 2-2 Fortuna Köln — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
44%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.53
No
51%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
7%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
25%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
34%
-6.9pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.1pp
44%
Away Win
41%
+2.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
61%
-11.8pp
51%
BTTS No
39%
+11.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Düren Merzenich EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortuna Köln EU Bookmakers 45%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -2%
1.65/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.12
+12% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +23%
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
281 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Düren Merzenich
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Fortuna Köln
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.10.2023 Fortuna Köln Fortuna Köln 1-0 HT 1-0 Düren Merzenich Düren Merzenich ALMBÖL
07.09.2023 Düren Merzenich Düren Merzenich 3-0 HT 0-0 Fortuna Köln Fortuna Köln HAZ
01.04.2023 Düren Merzenich Düren Merzenich 3-2 HT 1-1 Fortuna Köln Fortuna Köln ALMBÖL
07.10.2022 Fortuna Köln Fortuna Köln 3-2 HT 2-0 Düren Merzenich Düren Merzenich ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Düren Merzenich vs Fortuna Köln
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Düren Merzenich and Fortuna Köln shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Fortuna Köln at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Düren Merzenich and 1.50 for Fortuna Köln.

What was the final score of Düren Merzenich vs Fortuna Köln?

Düren Merzenich 2-2 Fortuna Köln in the Germany - Regional League on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Düren Merzenich vs Fortuna Köln?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fortuna Köln win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Düren Merzenich 27%, draw 30%, Fortuna Köln 44%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Fortuna Köln), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fortuna Köln) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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