TPS Turku 1-0 Mikkeli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Ykkönen, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.49
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
22%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.86
Over 2.5
41%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.99
No
61%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.28
2-3 Goals
45%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.59
6+ Goals
9%
14.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 27% vs market 24.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
23%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
63%
-6.9pp
22%
Draw
23%
-0.8pp
22%
Away Win
15%
+7.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
50%
+9.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
50%
-9.4pp
39%
BTTS Yes
46%
-7.4pp
61%
BTTS No
54%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME TPS Turku EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Mikkeli EU Bookmakers 18%
-1% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +2%
2.46/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.93
+8% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
416 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME TPS Turku
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Mikkeli
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.10.2023 Mikkeli Mikkeli 2-1 HT 0-1 TPS Turku TPS Turku FINY
02.09.2023 Mikkeli Mikkeli 0-1 HT 0-1 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN2
15.06.2023 TPS Turku TPS Turku 1-1 HT 1-1 Mikkeli Mikkeli FİN2
12.08.2022 TPS Turku TPS Turku 1-0 HT 0-0 Mikkeli Mikkeli FİN2
10.06.2022 Mikkeli Mikkeli 1-1 HT 0-1 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN2
30.07.2021 TPS Turku TPS Turku 2-2 HT 1-1 Mikkeli Mikkeli FİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME TPS Turku
1-0
AWAY Mikkeli
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH TPS Turku vs Mikkeli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

TPS Turku squeezed past Mikkeli 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had TPS Turku as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, TPS Turku had 48% of the ball to Mikkeli's 52%, shots finished 7-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, TPS Turku had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for TPS Turku and 1.00 for Mikkeli.

What was the final score of TPS Turku vs Mikkeli?

TPS Turku 1-0 Mikkeli in the Finland - Ykkönen on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for TPS Turku vs Mikkeli?

Before kick-off our model rated a TPS Turku win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split TPS Turku 56%, draw 22%, Mikkeli 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (TPS Turku), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (TPS Turku) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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